Early vote count tops 52.7 million as election spending hits record high

Early voters cast 52.7 million ballots by Saturday, setting a new record for midterm elections and surpassing the 2022 total. Campaigns are on track to spend $11.6 billion on advertising, according to the firm AdImpact. The hard-fought races for U.S. Senate seats in Ohio and Texas led the spending totals. Democrats need to net four Senate seats to control the chamber, while Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the House.

President Donald Trump’s Department of Justice faced multiple legal setbacks this week. A federal appeals court denied the administration’s effort to force state officials to quarantine up to 20,000 voter ballots in California. This marked the third and fourth courtroom losses for the DOJ in less than a week. The department continues to pursue a preemptive lawsuit against Alaska’s U.S. Senate race results.

Former Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson said his hope is that the current trend of judicial rulings continues. “My hope is that this trend will continue and that our worst-case scenarios don’t come to fruition,” Grayson told States Newsroom. Trump said Tuesday that he would accept a Democratic victory if the elections are honest. He refused to rule out federal interference in the process.

Cost of living concerns remain the top motivator for voters, according to multiple polls. Economist Jared Bernstein stated that over 80% of voters rank the issue as one of the most important. “The majority of the electorate disapproves of Trump’s handling, not just of the economy in general, but of cost of living,” Bernstein said. The GOP also faces risks in Latino support due to immigration enforcement tactics.

María Isabel Di Franco Quiñonez of Equis surveyed 900 Latino voters across seven battleground states. She found sinking support for and trust in Republicans. “The clearest finding was that voters want both responsible enforcement and generosity towards immigrants,” Quiñonez said. The survey indicated a desire for a controlled border and a pathway to legalization.

The Cook Political Report rates Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas as toss-up U.S. Senate races. Inside Elections projected Thursday that Democrats would gain enough seats to reach at least a 50-50 split Senate. A New York Times/Siena poll found South Carolina voters evenly split between Republican nominee Darline Graham and Democratic challenger Annie Andrews. In Kansas, a survey by Emerson College Polling found Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton at 49% over Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall at 45%.

Trump canceled a rally in Kansas on Thursday because Marshall was “doing very well,” but reversed his plans by Friday morning. He will appear in person as scheduled. He similarly flipped on canceling his trip to Iowa to support Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson. The U.S. House appears to be tipping toward Democrats, with competitive districts including California’s 22nd, Florida’s 14th and 22nd, and Michigan’s 4th, 7th, and 10th.