60 warheads, no summit in sight

60.

That is the current estimated number of nuclear warheads in North Korea’s arsenal, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. In 2018, when President Donald Trump first met Kim Jong Un, the count stood between 10 and 20. The increase coincides with a diplomatic silence from Pyongyang that has dimmed hopes for a new summit before the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation gathering in China.

Kim arrived at the Chinese border last weekend for a surprise meeting with a top lieutenant of President Xi Jinping. The visit projected a regime that feels secure in its ties to Beijing and Moscow. It arrived just weeks after Xi made his first visit to Pyongyang in seven years. Kim also joined Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a military parade in Beijing last September. He hosted leaders from Vietnam, Laos, and Belarus in the months that followed.

In August, Trump said he expected to meet Kim this year. He suggested the two might meet on the sidelines of the APEC meeting. Four people familiar with discussions among U.S., North Korean, Chinese, and South Korean officials said prospects for that meeting have largely vanished. They cited little interest from Pyongyang. One former U.S. official said North Korean officials showed little sincere interest in White House outreach.

An Asian diplomat noted that Pyongyang had not explicitly rejected an invitation. However, the country offered no substantive response regarding a potential meeting. A Chinese official said such meetings typically take months to arrange. He called a last-minute effort to secure an encounter unlikely. Trump himself tempered expectations earlier this month. He told reporters at the White House that he may see Kim. A week later, he said he was not sure anybody was asking for a meeting.

North Korea’s leverage has grown as its economy stabilizes through cybertheft. On Thursday, cryptocurrency exchange Binance confirmed a $6.3 billion hack. Blockchain intelligence firms attributed the breach to North Korean hackers. This is reportedly the largest hack in cryptocurrency history. The funds help bankroll a heavily sanctioned economy and reduce the regime’s dependence on trade with Washington.

Tensions with South Korea have also risen. On Thursday, North Korea fired ballistic missiles into waters off its east coast. This action escalated a dispute over a border mine explosion that injured three South Korean soldiers last month. Earlier this month, the country tested an intermediate-range ballistic missile. A White House spokesperson said in a statement that they have nothing to share regarding a summit between President Trump and Kim Jong Un.

The shift in North Korea’s posture is tied to its military capabilities. Pyongyang developed a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile first tested in 2023. That weapon can reach anywhere in the continental United States. In a March speech to the Supreme People’s Assembly, Kim denounced U.S. military aggression. He said the current world reality teaches that the true guarantee of a state’s existence is its own power.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has provided an economic lifeline to North Korea. Pyongyang supplied Moscow with ammunition and roughly 12,000 troops. In return, North Korea reportedly received hard currency and military technology. South Korean central bank estimates show the country’s GDP grew by more than 3 percent annually since 2023. Sydney Seiler, a former U.S. intelligence officer at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said North Korea does not need the United States for economic trade or political support.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to North Korea’s complete denuclearization at a trilateral meeting last month. He spoke alongside his Japanese and South Korean counterparts. The North Korean mission to the United Nations in New York did not respond to a request for comment.