UK aid budget faces 400 million pound gap

The United Kingdom is projected to fall short of its international aid spending target by 400 million pounds in 2027. New calculations from the Center for Global Development (CGD) indicate that the shortfall stems from higher-than-expected inflation and a 2025 policy change affecting the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) budget.

The CGD stated that the central forecast in the Treasury's comparison of independent experts suggests aid spending in 2027 will be 410 million pounds lower than planned. This level corresponds to 0.29% of national income. Researchers described a gap of 580 million pounds, or 0.28% of national income, as very plausible, while the most conservative estimate points to a 250 million pound difference.

Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at the CGD and co-director of its Europe programme, characterized these figures as material shortfalls in the spending power of UK aid. He noted that closing the 400 million pound gap would halve planned cuts to Africa. Mitchell said these cuts are likely to cost thousands of lives and amount to a de facto UK exit from the south and east of the continent.

The 0.3% goal for 2027 is significantly below the 0.7% figure promised in the Labour Party election manifesto. Prime Minister Keir Starmer lowered the target to allocate more funds to defence spending. The CGD urged ministers to consider adding funds for international aid in the upcoming budget to avoid the criticism associated with missing the goal.

Fleur Anderson, a former minister on the foreign affairs select committee, argued that hitting the reduced target is essential. She stated that falling short is not an abstract accounting issue, pointing to communities without clean water, girls leaving school, and undelivered vaccines. Anderson added that she wants the government to reverse the cuts altogether in time.

Figures released by the FCDO in September showed that the cuts have hit the world's poorest nations hardest. Funding to the least-developed and low-income countries fell by 6.7%, or 118 million pounds. The UK's overall official development assistance budget dropped to 0.44% of gross national income in 2025, down from 0.5% in 2024, a decrease of 987 million pounds.

An FCDO spokesperson said that multi-year aid allocations published in March 2026 set out spending plans for the next three financial years. The spokesperson noted that moving to a fixed budget reduces volatility and provides stability to deliver high-impact aid programmes.