Middle East nations await Israel's coalition talks with cautious optimism

Israel has entered a holding pattern following its recent election, with parties now engaged in coalition talks that could last several weeks. While the region watches these developments, governments from Riyadh to Tehran are proceeding with their own policy agendas rather than waiting for a new Israeli cabinet to define their actions.

The political landscape shifted after the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, leading countries to reassess their relationships with Jerusalem. Five specific issues dominate the regional view of the election outcome. The first is the future of Gaza, where the US-backed Board of Peace has operated for approximately ten months. Regional actors, including Egypt and Qatar, are pushing Washington to advance reconstruction and disarmament plans, but the initiative has stalled as the administration avoids pressuring Israel. New leadership in Jerusalem may approach the Board differently, yet the core challenges of Hamas and security arrangements will persist.

Normalization efforts under the Abraham Accords represent the second major issue. The UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco have maintained ties with Israel despite recent conflicts, prioritizing trade and security cooperation. However, expanding the group has proved difficult. Saudi Arabia remains a key variable, linking normalization to broader interests such as the Palestinian issue and its own diplomatic moves with Turkey and Pakistan. A new Israeli government might ease discussions, but Riyadh is unlikely to drop its conditions.

Iran’s reaction to the election is the third concern. Tehran is assessing its military capabilities after recent wars and is watching for signs of resumed Israeli strikes. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently shared an image of an Iranian nuclear facility strike and received endorsements from President Donald Trump. Iran may hope that political uncertainty in Israel constrains future operations, but regional experts note that Tehran’s calculations depend heavily on US policies, including sanctions and military deployments.

Relations with Turkey form the fourth issue. Israeli policymakers increasingly view Ankara as a potential adversary, a perspective that could shift with new leadership. Tensions are high due to competing interests in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. Both countries are concerned about threats in the Golan Heights and the east Mediterranean. While a change in Israeli leadership might reduce rhetorical friction, structural disputes over regional influence remain.

Syria, Jordan, and Egypt illustrate a wait-and-see approach. The new government in Damascus considered warming ties with Israel in 2025, but Israeli leaders indicated a lack of interest in a deal, focusing instead on border security and the Druze community. Jordan, critical of Israel at the UN General Assembly this year, is focused on the West Bank and Jerusalem’s Holy Sites. Egypt continues to downplay tensions while remaining central to Gaza diplomacy. These nations have learned to be cynical about the likelihood of rapid change in Israel's policy.

Regional governments are prioritizing their own economic development and security partnerships. They view Israel as an important part of the region but not the sole determinant of their future. The prevailing attitude is one of verification, with leaders preparing to judge the new Israeli government by its actions on these five key fronts.