Maxwell Ratings: 32 Bubble Teams Need Wins And Help

The Maxwell Ratings project that 32 teams currently on the bubble need to win their games this weekend to maintain or improve their standing. The projections combine current ratings with actual scoring patterns to determine likely outcomes. For football, specific score lines such as 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more probable than scores of 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11. A final score of 28 is also much more likely than a score of 29.

The system provides data for each game, including the game rating, the probability of the favorite winning, and the median score for each team. It also lists the median margin of victory for the favorite. This information helps identify which teams require specific performance levels to advance in the rankings.

The game rating is defined as the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round-robin competition. This competition is against the expected rating of the loser of the game. The rating is calculated in proportion to how often each team would win. This method favors games featuring highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The current data shows that the margin of victory for the favorite varies by matchup. The difference between the two sides is a key factor in the projected outcome. Teams on the bubble must achieve the median margin of victory to meet the 50% win threshold in their respective competitions. The probability of the favorite winning is tied directly to these calculated margins.