Filber's polling fuels split in Likud ahead of Tuesday vote

A disagreement over the accuracy of internal polling has divided Likud leadership as the party prepares for Tuesday's election. One party source described a sharp rift between members who expect a win and those who fear a surge in opposition turnout.

The confidence of the optimistic faction rests on forecasts produced by Shlomo Filber, who manages Likud's internal polling. The source characterized the stakes of Filber's data with blunt language: "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other." This internal tension exists less than a day before Israelis cast ballots.

A primary driver of the pessimistic camp's anxiety is the financial activity of rival nonprofits. Party sources claim these groups are deploying large sums of money to mobilize voters opposed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The reported campaign activities include social media ads, physical signage, field events, and transportation services for Arab voters. The sources also said efforts are underway to bring Israelis living abroad home to vote.

One Likud official labeled the spending "the nonprofits affair on steroids." The argument is that these organizations provide a support network to anti-Netanyahu parties that operates outside standard party financing rules. However, the sources did not provide documentation for the specific funding amounts or proof that the activities were illegal.

Likud has also criticized the Central Elections Committee. The party alleges the committee focused too heavily on enforcing limits for campaign videos and public resource use while ignoring the broader scope of nonprofit operations.

To counter these risks, Likud is organizing a major ground operation for Election Day. The party is focusing on retaining right-wing voters who might otherwise drift to smaller slates. This strategy follows failed negotiations to bring Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter out of the race. Winter, a former Givati Brigade commander, leads the People of Israel party. Talks involving Rabbi Eli Sadan did not result in Winter's withdrawal, and Sadan later issued a statement supporting him.

Likud is also pursuing other right-wing alliances. Discussions with the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha are ongoing. The Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, has already withdrawn from the race following talks with Likud. Those discussions included a proposal for legislation that would allow the party to appoint a deputy minister. A survey published days before the vote indicated that nearly one-third of Israeli voters had not yet decided who to support.