Religion shapes 2026 voting intent

Religion continues to influence political behavior in the United States as voters prepare for the 2026 midterm elections. New survey data indicates that while support for Christian nationalism is slightly decreasing, the concept remains a central factor in how citizens evaluate the government.

Andrew Whitehead, a sociology professor at Indiana University Indianapolis and research fellow for the Charles F. Kettering Foundation, presented findings from a Gallup survey of more than 23,000 adults. The data shows that approximately 14% of the U.S. population strongly embraces Christian nationalism. Just over 16% express at least some sympathy for the belief that Christianity defines the nation and that government should actively maintain that status.

Support varies by demographics. Among white Americans, 31% are at least sympathetic to the ideology. Men are more likely to hold this view than women, with a third of men expressing sympathy compared to 28% of women. Political party affiliation strongly correlates with these beliefs. More than half of Republicans, specifically 55%, either strongly embrace or sympathize with Christian nationalism.

Whitehead noted that fewer Americans now strongly hold these views, yet the rhetoric persists in federal government and media. He stated that fewer Americans embrace the ideology strongly, but it is more integrated into national political discussions than in the past.

The survey found a sharp divide in how these groups perceive democracy. Americans who strongly embrace Christian nationalism currently believe the system is functioning well. In contrast, very few of those who reject the ideology think democracy is doing well or even okay. Whitehead explained that those who embrace the concept are more concerned about perceived threats to democracy.

Those who resist or reject Christian nationalism comprise nearly 70% of respondents. Whitehead said this group is highly motivated to vote in the current cycle. They want Congress to check the power of the executive branch, a function he noted has not been evident during the first two years of the Trump administration.

Religious figures are appearing on ballots in greater numbers this cycle. Five Democrats are running for Congress who are either clergy or in training to become clergy. This represents a shift, as it has historically been far more common for Republicans to combine religion and politics in their campaigns.