Goldknopf's Three Seats and Bennett's Potential Role in Israel's Next Government

Three seats in the Knesset may determine the composition of Israel's next government. Yitzhak Goldknopf, who leads the haredi faction Agudat Yisrael, controls those three mandates. Political figures are currently evaluating whether his party will support a government led by the opposition in exchange for budgetary concessions. This potential deal would not automatically secure a governing majority, as votes from Arab parties might still be required.

The prospect of cooperation between Agudat Yisrael and the change bloc has circulated since August. Maariv reported at that time that Goldknopf was exploring new political alignments, including working with Gadi Eisenkot. These discussions emerged during a period of internal tension within United Torah Judaism. Friction between Agudat Yisrael and Degel Hatorah centered on the haredi military draft and their respective relationships with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Agudat Yisrael expressed disappointment with the current coalition's conduct, while Degel Hatorah indicated a lack of confidence in Netanyahu's leadership. Rabbi Dov Lando also sent a letter expressing reservations about maintaining the commitment to the Likud-led bloc.

Goldknopf faces a hurdle in shifting his party's allegiance. His voter base is largely aligned with the Right. Assessments suggest that any visible move to support a change bloc government could drive some of his supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. The faction's decision will be critical as parties finalize their coalition calculations.

Attention also turns to former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. If neither major bloc secures the 61 seats necessary for a stable government, Bennett could influence the outcome. One scenario suggests he might join a Netanyahu-led administration. This is considered a remote possibility, but some analysts argue Bennett is the only leader in the change bloc with a background on the Right who could make such a shift. His current party structure, however, makes this move complicated. Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned due to his past role as defense minister in a Netanyahu government, but current personal and political disagreements make him a less likely candidate for such a crossover.

These scenarios remain assessments rather than finalized agreements. The central question for negotiators is which politician is willing to move their political base. With voting set to begin in less than a day, the outcome will depend on these final calculations. The parties are still weighing the options of relying on Arab party support or returning to the polls for another election.